Earnings · resolved market
Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0458188a13bab6b78f8fc1356ea761711123efcc0c1abd2e0453549b4bb8f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 76c | 835.81$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.59 | 65 | 100%65 W · 0 L | +26.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x6f57…b03fbacked No | 37c | 739.75$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…bb1dbacked No | 24c | 650.49$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.12 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4d…1c7ebacked No | 30c | 519.1$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 66c | 434.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.35 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 57c | 367.99$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 73c | 329$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.28 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…d10fbacked Yes | 64c | 313.52$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 29c | 269$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 37c | 251.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 74c | 219.11$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 174.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 73c | 160$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 34c | 151$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Yes | 70c | 150$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 40c | 63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 74c | 60.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 40c | 50.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed No | 41c | 43.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae2…34d9backed Yes | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 39c | 30.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.