Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2752da96f2a7cdc6e2948ff095734406758ae7dfdfc22351b39bc35708ff7262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 70c | 254.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 12c | 242.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 27c | 219.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 11c | 172.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 166.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 156.68$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 52c | 149.08$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.01 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 21c | 147$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 65c | 130.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…0a3ebacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 27c | 119.65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 112.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 107.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 36c | 103.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 98.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 94.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked No | 54c | 93.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 87.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 64c | 85.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 14c | 77.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 76.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…7e91backed Yes | 38c | 71.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 15c | 67.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…0489backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 54.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 61c | 51.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 35c | 48.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 45.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 33c | 41.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 39c | 37.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 35.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 43c | 35.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 37c | 35.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 74c | 34.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked Yes | 45c | 33.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c60…5d2ebacked Yes | 45c | 33.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 70c | 31.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 30.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 30.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 22.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 70c | 21.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701d…d115backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…0595backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 66c | 18.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.