Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7620014cd924b6f07ae52140d3233ad6b538be3dbc0a731d2656a5af7d0208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd351…b2d9backed Yes | 0c | 31,632$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,843$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0008…e37bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,052$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 77c | 1,803$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.02 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,228$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 7c | 949.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 2c | 892.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…4146backed Yes | 3c | 676.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…4dbfbacked Yes | 2c | 636.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 11c | 456.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 15c | 319.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 7c | 307.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 280$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 272$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 80c | 249.67$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 12c | 229.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 80c | 220.1$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 23c | 172.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 23c | 166.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6118…7167backed Yes | 15c | 158.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 38c | 151.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 129.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 108.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…528cbacked Yes | 23c | 104.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 78c | 104.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 18c | 101.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 85.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 19c | 74.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 62.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 22c | 61.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 76c | 59.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 22c | 55.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 26c | 50.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 50.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…96cebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 47.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 45.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 80c | 35.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 77c | 34.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…df20backed Yes | 34c | 34.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 76c | 17.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 15.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.