Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe08d4802786b2d6ceb8d3ae29a49b8e7c104ca596505e979becbaccfc1786a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 3c | 495.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 24c | 469.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 33c | 444.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.71 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8da…0092backed No | 29c | 421.03$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 40c | 376$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 310$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 22c | 305.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.06 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 276.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 80c | 256.54$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked No | 5c | 235.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 59c | 226.03$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.03 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked No | 5c | 211.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61b9…07dfbacked Yes | 80c | 202.98$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 195.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 63c | 194.44$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.13 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 194.24$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 80c | 187.12$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.26 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 76c | 174.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 78c | 174.11$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 34c | 170.62$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 17c | 161.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 131.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 68c | 124.83$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 77c | 118.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 67c | 117.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 116.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…35efbacked Yes | 61c | 108.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 51c | 107.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 15c | 104$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0411…4fedbacked Yes | 78c | 103.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 97.91$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 21c | 93.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 93.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 14c | 88.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 57c | 87.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 25c | 75.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 73c | 74.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 67c | 72.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 22c | 72.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.66 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed Yes | 73c | 68.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 46c | 65.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 79c | 57.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 77c | 55.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 24c | 54.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 71c | 54.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 19c | 53.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 71c | 53.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 70c | 51.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 24c | 51.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 71c | 50.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…fc75backed No | 21c | 47.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea4…90edbacked Yes | 75c | 44.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 44.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 31c | 40.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 65c | 38.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 36.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 76c | 35.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 34.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 70c | 33.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 32.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 51c | 31.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 33c | 31.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c40…9f83backed No | 74c | 30.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 78c | 29.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 71c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 73c | 26.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 25.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 52c | 20.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 76c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 77c | 19.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 53c | 19.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 17.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 78c | 16.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 78c | 14.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 75c | 14.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.