Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd696404d303554a99a6218313c5d9a24e53d8a91b7eb393c5b73fbf908098467
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked No | 72c | 387.02$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 10c | 347.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 267.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 79c | 183.2$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 28c | 177.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 9c | 149.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 149.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 147.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeac…be8abacked Yes | 24c | 136.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 23c | 108.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 102.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 97.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 19c | 97.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 93.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 67.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 58.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 57.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 54.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 24c | 47.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 31c | 45.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 28c | 42.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 40.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 28.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…574abacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…1780backed No | 74c | 16.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 73c | 13.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.