Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f32db5072128c90e7c1aaa78d98c780265c9768c5426315ac4e6fe3a0e2c970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 1,288$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.09 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 1c | 824.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 5c | 404.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 354.59$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 289.93$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 18c | 288.7$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 262.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 4c | 252.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 42c | 217.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 213.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 19c | 170$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 45c | 162.41$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 160.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…b6ffbacked No | 62c | 154.65$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 15c | 142.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 38c | 140.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 135.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 15c | 117.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 38c | 107.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 98.01$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 12c | 96.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ce…17a5backed Yes | 13c | 91.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 80.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 74.45$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 72.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 71.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…cc5abacked Yes | 44c | 68.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 63.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 59c | 46.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2c…0854backed No | 64c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…4f78backed Yes | 38c | 38.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 36.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 40c | 35.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 42c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d88…3d2abacked Yes | 38c | 29.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 38c | 27.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 58c | 26.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe136…bcbabacked No | 62c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f6…0be5backed No | 61c | 19.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 64c | 15.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.