Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05fe17252de1996c7cf2bd0cb43b9aca2b763b61e6f15d82fe2bcbbf8bfc5181
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,099$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 27c | 1,011$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.29 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa866…8f10backed No | 71c | 997.22$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 28c | 613.92$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.03 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 34c | 498.93$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.32 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 451.99$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 450.8$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.38 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 59c | 442.24$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 420.45$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.27 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 25c | 404.04$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.22 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 33c | 387.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.28 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 78c | 385.17$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 25c | 361.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.13 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 332.96$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.86 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 54c | 313.41$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 28c | 305.28$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.06 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 17c | 301.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.39 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 293.03$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 271.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.04 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 14c | 268.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.64 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 260.46$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 53c | 255.06$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.26 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 23c | 248.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 41c | 243.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 39c | 240.51$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 20c | 236.91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 66c | 236.29$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.36 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 29c | 233.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.93 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 20c | 233.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.52 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 33c | 205.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.27 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 194.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 191.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 71c | 188$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 29c | 172.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 160.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.05 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 29c | 158.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 30c | 153.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.97 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 152.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 67c | 149.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 71c | 148.83$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 145.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…6641backed Yes | 30c | 143$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…b26bbacked No | 77c | 136$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 9c | 133.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.12 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 19c | 130.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.91 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 32c | 130$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 130$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e3…0e11backed Yes | 39c | 128.42$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 25c | 126.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.15 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 118.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 36c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 80c | 102.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 23c | 100.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.89 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 89.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 25c | 84.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…54d6backed Yes | 38c | 79.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 76.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 28c | 76.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 75.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…c9dcbacked No | 77c | 66.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -5.6wins | -0.43per pick | 74cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 35c | 64.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 25c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 25c | 61.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 25c | 60.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 65c | 57.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 20c | 57.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 71c | 57.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ad…ec38backed No | 58c | 52.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda80…cea6backed Yes | 40c | 49.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 66c | 49.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 92 | 30.4%28 W · 64 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 43c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 28c | 44.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b8bbbacked No | 73c | 41.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…fd57backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…0e5dbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88be…4b4ebacked Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed No | 77c | 38.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 33c | 38.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 27c | 37.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 72c | 37.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 74c | 36.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 59c | 35.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbc…e253backed Yes | 43c | 35.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…fd47backed Yes | 33c | 35.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.