Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x281f0206b3b85a6de1bf12ad88d9056fb04c91e1f685ba28c7635539d297fc50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,094
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa866…8f10backed Yes | 7c | 14,882$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5654…068abacked Yes | 0c | 12,515$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 17c | 1,745$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.61 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 54c | 1,650$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…6641backed Yes | 18c | 1,341$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 38c | 1,011$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.16 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 808.34$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 30c | 723.67$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.7 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 49c | 606.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.63 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 26c | 578.28$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.36 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 528.95$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 68c | 513.23$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 20c | 479.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 78c | 479.19$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.74 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 19c | 412.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 21c | 382.87$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 21c | 382.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 22c | 365.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 80c | 364.94$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.72 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 355.59$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 23c | 330.35$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 69c | 326.71$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 7c | 322.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 19c | 309.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 298.27$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 55c | 272.79$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 55c | 270.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 17c | 266.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 23c | 253.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 27c | 229.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.73 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 217.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 201.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 22c | 200.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.55 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 49c | 199.06$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.68 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…e52ebacked Yes | 77c | 195.04$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 8c | 171.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 46c | 159.71$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 31c | 157.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95a1…7cc7backed Yes | 77c | 155.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed Yes | 10c | 151.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 64c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.47 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 7c | 149.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 72c | 136.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 18c | 135.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 132.16$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4279…9f1bbacked Yes | 56c | 127.14$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +9.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 27c | 127.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 10c | 122.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.57 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 44c | 118.33$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 13c | 112.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.48 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…fd57backed Yes | 78c | 110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 75cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47d4…f594backed No | 80c | 101.51$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…bc71backed Yes | 79c | 100.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 15c | 99.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 26c | 95.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4314…cabcbacked Yes | 56c | 93.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…08aebacked Yes | 18c | 86.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed Yes | 58c | 84.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3da…ac4dbacked Yes | 73c | 83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…fd47backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 57c | 79.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 17c | 77.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.77 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 56c | 71.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 43c | 70.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 69.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked No | 80c | 69.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked Yes | 38c | 68.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1726…1ad4backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 58.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf724…c178backed Yes | 78c | 51.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 47.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed No | 50c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 76c | 43.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1baf…6604backed No | 59c | 41.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 75c | 40.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc802…7385backed Yes | 43c | 37.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 42c | 32.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 62c | 31.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…46a3backed Yes | 66c | 30.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce3…7da2backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 80c | 29.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 64c | 28.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.