TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,899
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,899 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c1,439$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.181,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes17c1,355$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.2724010%24 W · 216 L+0.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes4c1,327$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3111227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c1,183$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.152,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes11c1,086$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.3369520%139 W · 556 L-44.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-53.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc2f0…641fbacked Yes40c955.51$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.48425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes37c938.49$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.0332157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes4c900.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9755919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes4c700.97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1220838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes7c630.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1734219.9%68 W · 274 L+18.6wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes11c477.06$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes12c461.98$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9198738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes25c439.14$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.791,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes33c423.53$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.334,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes21c400$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes15c368.09$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5621235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes8c356.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9d…06b0backed No65c332.57$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0318727.3%51 W · 136 L+9.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes11c297.1$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6966543.6%290 W · 375 L+25.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1558…4f75backed No69c277$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.364271.4%30 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+28%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c272.09$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.017,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x095b…6f34backed Yes17c267.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.889447.9%45 W · 49 L+10.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb5d…3961backed Yes16c256.9$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.889142.9%39 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9aec…7008backed Yes24c245.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes11c242.42$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7114637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes14c240.31$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.7181234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes26c237.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.661,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes18c234.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.647038.6%27 W · 43 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes22c234$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9812235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c214.46$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.2312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c207.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes9c199.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes27c199.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9428737.6%108 W · 179 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes34c173.62$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.335928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8f…d351backed Yes28c165.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.65333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes23c151.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.953,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…afb2backed Yes37c149.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.397737.7%29 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No69c144.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.7359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No63c143.05$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.13,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd084…27eabacked Yes7c140.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e53…14e7backed No72c139.73$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7615027.3%41 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe67b…f8b2backed Yes22c139.52$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.69147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a42…8da8backed Yes34c135.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.838840.7%158 W · 230 L-14.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0460…dd10backed Yes41c103.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.251936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4129469.7%205 W · 89 L+26.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x594e…1c11backed No71c99.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3666144.5%294 W · 367 L+57.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4944…9a8bbacked Yes49c99.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes25c89.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.492,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0218…f9babacked Yes28c88.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6530…54d6backed Yes35c84.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes23c79.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3922236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes31c70$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked No75c61.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.432050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c59.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.861,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cde…1af7backed No73c59$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9120146.3%93 W · 108 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc792…5148backed Yes28c58$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.24520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…69d5backed Yes35c57.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes22c56.19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No78c55.74$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3829922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes25c51.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.981,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1382…7820backed Yes39c51.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0114736.1%53 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1181029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes46c49.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2332548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked No65c48.92$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1223436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1be…3578backed Yes35c45.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165626.8%15 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-16.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa870…2cd1backed No78c42.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.417978.8%141 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick78cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No53c40.97$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2651762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x381f…03ffbacked Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes45c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1811855.1%65 W · 53 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8116…b2a8backed Yes49c39.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2912152.1%63 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c2b…36f4backed No66c39$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.267347.9%35 W · 38 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe421…cc2abacked Yes31c37.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1533839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes41c36.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked No78c35.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7116651.2%85 W · 81 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc448…085ebacked Yes37c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.821919.6%43 W · 176 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes43c34.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151315.4%2 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.24per pick40cpaid-65.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3131…997ebacked Yes31c32.57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+48.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc3…7d41backed No66c31.55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.747323.3%17 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-46.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdc03…3c05backed No66c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.152157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fdf…af9ebacked No70c28.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.761275%9 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…496fbacked No64c27.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.969643.8%42 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1198160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe201…3f41backed No66c22.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.724040%16 W · 24 L-5.9wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-30%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked No58c22.63$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5531567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x256e…1867backed No68c22.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.13771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No58c20.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.814,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11c0…f014backed No75c20.47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.222437.5%9 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5117…1241backed No64c19.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-54.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No66c18.45$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2752245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cc0…b5f2backed No64c17.56$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2413360.9%81 W · 52 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No72c13.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8970770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.