Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc612ef0c9ab4fcb3bf4c04208527b264d28edeaaac98afb61838402ea4646364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,439$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 17c | 1,355$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.27 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 4c | 1,327$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,183$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 11c | 1,086$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.33 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f0…641fbacked Yes | 40c | 955.51$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 37c | 938.49$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.03 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 900.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 4c | 700.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 630.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 11c | 477.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 12c | 461.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 25c | 439.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 423.53$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.33 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 15c | 368.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 356.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 65c | 332.57$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 11c | 297.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed No | 69c | 277$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.36 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 272.09$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 17c | 267.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 16c | 256.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…7008backed Yes | 24c | 245.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 11c | 242.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 14c | 240.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 26c | 237.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 18c | 234.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 22c | 234$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 214.46$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 207.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 34c | 173.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 28c | 165.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 151.08$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.39 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 69c | 144.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 143.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked Yes | 7c | 140.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 72c | 139.73$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe67b…f8b2backed Yes | 22c | 139.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 34c | 135.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 41c | 103.85$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 71c | 99.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…9a8bbacked Yes | 49c | 99.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 25c | 89.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…f9babacked Yes | 28c | 88.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6530…54d6backed Yes | 35c | 84.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 23c | 79.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…de4fbacked No | 75c | 61.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 59.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc792…5148backed Yes | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…69d5backed Yes | 35c | 57.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b0…b4f4backed Yes | 22c | 56.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 78c | 55.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 25c | 51.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 39c | 51.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 46c | 49.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked No | 65c | 48.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…3578backed Yes | 35c | 45.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 40.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381f…03ffbacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe421…cc2abacked Yes | 31c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…b41bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 78c | 35.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d74fbacked Yes | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…997ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed No | 66c | 31.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 66c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 64c | 27.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 58c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed No | 68c | 22.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 20.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 75c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…1241backed No | 64c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 66c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 64c | 17.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 13.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 46°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.