Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta reach $750 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ad7b6ca7b9c57adc2913eb97a44e66ad75039d46e8f789484abce7613766cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 12c | 3,244$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.41 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 2,526$1,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.41 | 262 | 37%97 W · 165 L | -11.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 1c | 2,072$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,972$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.05 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 776.97$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.49 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 31c | 644.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 8c | 559.21$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 69c | 553.55$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.43 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Yes | 19c | 487.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 3c | 330$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 39c | 293.64$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.08 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 67c | 271.61$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 20c | 254.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 7c | 201$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +225.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 156.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 120 | 35%42 W · 78 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 15c | 130.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf779…d36fbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 75c | 98.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 68c | 79.64$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…fe50backed Yes | 27c | 64.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 28c | 59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 24c | 57.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c9…9171backed Yes | 41c | 53.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…cba8backed Yes | 53c | 46.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 47c | 36.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Yes | 37c | 33.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…2317backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta reach $750 in January?this page
- Will Meta dip to $520 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $560 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $590 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $720 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $790 in January?No won
- Will Meta reach $880 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.