Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta dip to $590 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaa7f14a2c3f54dfbe22b482e39bd029fadf467edc5a0570a38aacbd19c471bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 54c | 1,476$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.68 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 48c | 1,029$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.94 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 18c | 630$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.2 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 56c | 600$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 59c | 550.75$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.1 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 33c | 360$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 25c | 311.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 11c | 232$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 34c | 210.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.47 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 205.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 150 | 5.3%8 W · 142 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 33c | 79.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa43…c686backed No | 55c | 72.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a9…564abacked No | 65c | 63.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 64c | 52.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…f1c3backed No | 48c | 41.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +131.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…2552backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x504e…97ccbacked No | 57c | 32.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 58c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6168…98c9backed No | 58c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…4558backed No | 63c | 16.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c6…f3d0backed No | 62c | 16.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta dip to $590 in January?this page
- Will Meta dip to $520 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $560 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $720 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $750 in January?No won
- Will Meta reach $790 in January?No won
- Will Meta reach $880 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.