Stocks · resolved market
Will Meta reach $720 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdb56f9a20f096f06dc11c1f9521f23b0d76d34087236c6c8361c3dc7341880d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,641
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,641 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 3,086$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 3c | 2,467$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400.03 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed No | 8c | 2,114$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 77c | 665.74$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.94 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 4c | 587.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 24c | 454.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.93 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 62c | 247$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.66 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…32bebacked No | 74c | 239$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +29%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 63c | 194.96$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.69 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 18c | 170.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.61 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 145.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…7d09backed No | 63c | 137.14$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 62c | 127.4$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 107.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.61 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…6f64backed No | 61c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 35c | 70.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0edd…ff3bbacked No | 64c | 53.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 51.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 46c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…b1d8backed No | 71c | 24.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta reach $720 in January?this page
- Will Meta dip to $520 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $560 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $590 in January?No won
- Will Meta dip to $620 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta dip to $640 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $680 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $700 in January?Yes won
- Will Meta reach $750 in January?No won
- Will Meta reach $790 in January?No won
- Will Meta reach $880 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.