Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b15c8ff30f09c27c147d64bee76fdf9cb11b07c8892bd0f664a2d5780c08273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 49c | 248.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.31 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 161.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 50c | 157.1$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 51c | 151.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.41 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 141.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 52c | 122.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.35 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 106.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…0915backed Yes | 68c | 100.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 11c | 97.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 45c | 93.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…2f7dbacked No | 50c | 70.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3318backed Yes | 30c | 66.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5771…6ef3backed No | 45c | 66.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 58.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 49c | 49.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 52c | 46.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 55c | 45.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.73 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 31c | 43.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 60c | 31.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…00e3backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 59c | 29.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbb…74c0backed Yes | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7f…171bbacked No | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 76c | 25.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…c90abacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 58c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 63c | 16.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 74c | 15.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on February 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on February 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.