Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94b4f94a6ca243badd03ce76deadc731d17ccc7e00d77ffe5602869dea88b184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 77c | 237.45$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 32c | 219.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.39 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 205$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 184.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 181.81$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 178.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 177.16$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.32 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 33c | 166.63$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 22c | 95.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 73c | 77.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517e…4fb2backed No | 67c | 74.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 90 | 76.7%69 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe201…3f41backed No | 68c | 73.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 60c | 58.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 57.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 55c | 54.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0631…eeb3backed Yes | 27c | 51.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 30c | 46.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 46.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 42c | 45.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 28c | 42.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 32c | 42.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked No | 62c | 40.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 62c | 38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 62c | 37.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 59c | 37.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed No | 68c | 30.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 62c | 29.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 62c | 25.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2850…a9d6backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefc3…a695backed No | 64c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked No | 62c | 21.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6344…b9a7backed No | 78c | 20.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 60c | 19.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 75c | 13.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.