Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c147002c557edfb903519d4d18ec3bb500a8e2e873ef50734a9f31a0fe7ad53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 66c | 194.64$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 173.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 66c | 132.49$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 114.21$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 35c | 105.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bac…8769backed Yes | 48c | 104.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 28c | 65.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed No | 78c | 64.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 66c | 60.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 57.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaf…3235backed Yes | 20c | 52.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 36c | 48.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccd…357bbacked Yes | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 34c | 42.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 35c | 37.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 37.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b06…978dbacked Yes | 29c | 34.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 66c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x284e…ddb2backed No | 57c | 22.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 56c | 18.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…c287backed No | 69c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 71c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 67°F or below on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 82°F or higher on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on February 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.