Space · resolved market
Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by February 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacfc500d3ee55946a0a31ca008cbeb809cb9caa78560260764500a878eacae69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 31c | 1,318$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 69c | 1,124$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e80…f694backed Yes | 52c | 380.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd198…8797backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 31c | 149.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 110.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 49c | 77.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by February 15, 2026?this page
- Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.