Space · resolved market
Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63bf0b0e8f2a76dba9b5d4afa745b02467b0bfb7e7ec61c429e4317739d08b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,968
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,968 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes | 50c | 2,022$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 58c | 1,318$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…d30bbacked No | 43c | 404.9$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…b782backed No | 38c | 395.47$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…4f70backed No | 50c | 280.62$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 208.36$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…8ea6backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 42c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -66%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 47c | 26.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbde…3092backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by February 15, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.