Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $600 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5513b78460178ed2b60ce17dfc717b2cf4371ca615887a91c3d5a81a9fe52b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 0c | 204,441$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 13c | 1,627$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 11c | 784$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.2 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 206.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…cb4abacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 147.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953c…1aacbacked Yes | 23c | 63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…e5b7backed No | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…96d5backed No | 38c | 49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…80fbbacked Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 70c | 40.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…9ac6backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…7ef8backed Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $600 in February?this page
- Will BNB dip to $300 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $400 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $500 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $700 in February?Yes won
- Will BNB reach $1,100 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,200 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $800 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.