Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB dip to $500 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3adf60c4b84a26acf0dbf2ab77f3c1a6a3fbc80a429fdabca6fc67a011c6598b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,061$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 724.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 574.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…0801backed Yes | 52c | 494.09$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a3…64d2backed Yes | 3c | 345.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 18c | 332.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 45c | 290$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…0503backed Yes | 12c | 273.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 49c | 272.39$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…69dbbacked Yes | 9c | 263.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a3…522dbacked No | 70c | 203.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Yes | 30c | 166.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 144.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 16c | 78.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 28c | 72.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 71c | 62.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 62c | 58.84$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…30b2backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44af…a0c7backed Yes | 55c | 20.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB dip to $500 in February?this page
- Will BNB dip to $300 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $400 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in February?Yes won
- Will BNB dip to $700 in February?Yes won
- Will BNB reach $1,100 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,200 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $800 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.