Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will BNB reach $800 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79406e088dcd31fd50b4413de6220d4a467ed10fac6d9dac67c36bee30eb101b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7791…af80backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,927$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ce…1405backed Yes | 1c | 2,637$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x512f…a99cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,200$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aee…a444backed No | 77c | 1,200$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 21c | 595.29$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.09 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 554.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed No | 70c | 346.66$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.42 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0625…0503backed Yes | 17c | 238.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 7c | 198$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa515…fd70backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 97.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 14c | 74.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd0…df58backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2d…23fcbacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d79…c80bbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x953c…1aacbacked Yes | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BNB reach $800 in February?this page
- Will BNB dip to $300 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $400 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $500 in February?No won
- Will BNB dip to $600 in February?Yes won
- Will BNB dip to $700 in February?Yes won
- Will BNB reach $1,100 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $1,200 in February?No won
- Will BNB reach $900 in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.