Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x148c2f8eae531a3c173f47191fab49afa2b3145caaf24cb58ef0f96ec564bc9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45b0…ceebbacked No | 17c | 1,906$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,151$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 48c | 976.19$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 12c | 876.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 72c | 754$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…fe31backed No | 80c | 682.14$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 11c | 638.53$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 9c | 535.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.94 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 24c | 486.41$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 9c | 355.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.81 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.99 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 24c | 271.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc750…57acbacked Yes | 19c | 247.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +430.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…c565backed Yes | 13c | 241.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed Yes | 33c | 216.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…f91ebacked Yes | 33c | 196.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…4fe9backed No | 37c | 192.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 16c | 188.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 45c | 184.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.16 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +5.1wins | +0.39per pick | 53cpaid | +196.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…c6cabacked No | 46c | 175.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 73c | 142.81$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.53 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 23c | 137.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9752…8087backed No | 18c | 129.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a3…e60abacked No | 25c | 92.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 90.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e45…3662backed No | 28c | 88.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…f65bbacked No | 37c | 75.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…cb76backed No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…17c9backed No | 69c | 71.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 26c | 71.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…2246backed Yes | 42c | 71.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed No | 69c | 70.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…7c90backed Yes | 23c | 61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 34c | 57.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 60c | 48.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 28c | 46.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 42c | 46.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaea…c3f3backed No | 72c | 45.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0b…422dbacked Yes | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 49c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 34c | 35.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 34.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c57…dc51backed No | 68c | 29.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…3a2cbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 42c | 27.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd88c…9207backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…cc87backed Yes | 59c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…dee0backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…0346backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…3c89backed Yes | 43c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 80c | 23.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed No | 45c | 23.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 71c | 20.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 75c | 16.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.