Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c71361d4ba3647619c72661c30f9942d1fd1e9885dd982c280177a6884a773e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 4c | 5,648$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.5 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 5c | 3,167$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 7c | 2,429$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,715$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 1,445 | 8.8%127 W · 1,318 L | -53.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 11c | 1,474$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 10c | 1,377$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,369$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,366$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 1,243$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,241$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 5c | 1,010$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac38…c565backed Yes | 10c | 904.61$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 11c | 828.33$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes | 5c | 700$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 3c | 652.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 7c | 618.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76de…96d3backed Yes | 8c | 600.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…4dc6backed Yes | 14c | 423.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…cc6ebacked Yes | 6c | 302.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…5bf5backed Yes | 5c | 258.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes | 6c | 250.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…7062backed No | 78c | 208.66$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00a7…cd9ebacked Yes | 10c | 206.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56f…b885backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 185.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…cce7backed Yes | 10c | 181.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…c147backed Yes | 13c | 91.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48e…0057backed Yes | 16c | 60.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.