TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$129,935
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$144,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,935 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes15c38,070$5,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,795.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c5,250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.48120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes12c4,214$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.772326.1%6 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18b…3917backed Yes8c3,930$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.891533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+136.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c3,061$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.111,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes38c2,778$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.131915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes24c2,729$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.591936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No74c2,562$1,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.031546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x504d…dae8backed No77c1,210$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69b9…1284backed No54c1,177$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.03666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20358.6%3 W · 32 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+122.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0579…1993backed Yes50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c3…0c7ebacked No50c957$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.27per pick36cpaid+61%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c9…6deabacked Yes29c951.88$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No30c905.36$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.751353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+12.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8666…d7c7backed Yes74c894.77$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.54425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-64.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5d…2fafbacked Yes13c842.01$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6b…a7b4backed Yes17c832.06$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeadf…26efbacked No24c823.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.33683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+125.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3ddf…5c37backed Yes4c775$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.031020%2 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+165%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes14c700$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed No79c641.71$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No41c639.67$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.254148.8%20 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes56c620.73$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4335151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32eb…a86ebacked Yes3c607.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dcf…950ebacked Yes3c561.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e77…e626backed No78c547.95$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.91392.3%12 W · 1 L+5.1wins+0.39per pick53cpaid+196.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes80c546.05$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.841233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b1…4ea2backed No61c524.94$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37f8…d3eabacked Yes15c515.16$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c507.73$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.413815.9%22 W · 116 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf802…6910backed No73c461.07$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2df…ed29backed Yes57c430.67$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed No62c426.55$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.123245.3%105 W · 127 L+15.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69be…c807backed Yes4c395.04$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c17…fa0bbacked Yes26c384.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9660…8bb6backed Yes31c369$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1130%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e57…7c49backed Yes70c357.26$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes50c346.61$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No39c314.42$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.884117.1%7 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes49c310.56$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.96631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No50c307.35$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.011241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+230%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed No51c305$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd515…14febacked Yes11c300$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f08…73a8backed Yes44c275$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No50c222$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1112536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+40.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x770a…7d17backed Yes33c209.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+62.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5056…e270backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No71c199.43$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8c…f98abacked No59c169.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3afe…01d4backed Yes47c165.19$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb424…3b71backed Yes12c160.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1966…25c0backed No50c156.33$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.175100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+82.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2762…2cf6backed Yes74c151.25$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes21c151.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6774…2362backed No66c149.4$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…af26backed No70c142.83$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.831376.9%10 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick72cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c137.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5515835.4%56 W · 102 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43c8…0551backed Yes8c134.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab8…212ebacked No57c130.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec29…d5c1backed No78c129.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.01450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58c…1359backed Yes78c127.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13b8…79dabacked Yes65c122.9$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No36c113.53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.669100%9 W · 0 L+4.0wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+86.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa1c7…bdbbbacked No25c113.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.21425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes41c112.77$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.24425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes50c111.91$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.5427429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xada1…6b50backed Yes72c107.96$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…8f57backed Yes79c105.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x909f…431abacked No38c105.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.033100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+105.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes21c104.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e4e…7c90backed No75c104$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d54…45ebbacked Yes11c99.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8b2…1296backed Yes11c90.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes62c90$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ee7…4ea8backed Yes46c90$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes49c89.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.721637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No23c82.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.351117.2%8 W · 103 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes24c80.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.541827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+20.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d2…4e7abacked No64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5106…22e6backed No56c70.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.913100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf385…aa41backed No53c70$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+89%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…0b29backed No55c69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3baa…3c6fbacked No74c67.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes37c63.32$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4129323.2%68 W · 225 L-31.5wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes17c61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.41520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6dd7…203fbacked Yes61c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.640%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x47e7…ecbfbacked No70c60$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes38c58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8611346.9%53 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No34c57.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.238239%32 W · 50 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid+8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0f2c…8e8abacked No36c55.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+178.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc25…8ecfbacked No48c52.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+67.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x547c…9fbdbacked Yes22c51.13$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8620…c0e7backed Yes59c50.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.95250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1210049%49 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x978e…80bcbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…4006backed Yes60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes29c48.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.073613.9%5 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x62ba…31dbbacked Yes73c48.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…d271backed Yes34c44.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.