Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce8a622c7decfa7d4a5444836cdb9034a662ad20fca12c4a2d21c17045f00483
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa661…ef0ebacked Yes | 40c | 3,783$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 60c | 3,280$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,517$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.04 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…df38backed No | 62c | 1,403$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ecc7backed Yes | 22c | 1,298$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…64dabacked Yes | 17c | 1,252$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,199$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.96 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 77c | 920.21$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 53c | 841.89$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.31 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Yes | 39c | 806.51$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 29cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 32c | 670.92$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb424…3b71backed Yes | 18c | 613.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…9b56backed Yes | 19c | 600$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed No | 73c | 600$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 75c | 598.99$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…511fbacked Yes | 10c | 477.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c2…881bbacked Yes | 26c | 466.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 412.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d5…bd41backed Yes | 15c | 359.75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 23c | 281$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 67c | 252.36$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…c4a9backed Yes | 8c | 247.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 207.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 204.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…da96backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ea…4815backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…258ebacked Yes | 21c | 198.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc640…ccbebacked Yes | 32c | 188.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa037…2fb3backed Yes | 23c | 177.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe148…eb00backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc39…a6e9backed Yes | 27c | 146.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 142.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed Yes | 29c | 137.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…59ffbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked No | 80c | 125.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…46e5backed Yes | 13c | 117.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 10c | 106.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 23c | 103.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f0…15e1backed Yes | 10c | 101.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb6…5875backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…5e33backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 15c | 98.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…bd2dbacked No | 51c | 98.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 24c | 79.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 71c | 69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 108 | 79.6%86 W · 22 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 77c | 59.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ae…ac55backed Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7438…b741backed Yes | 22c | 48.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfca…5ef0backed Yes | 25c | 40.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 71c | 28.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cd…89b6backed No | 77c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 64c | 21.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf13…72cabacked Yes | 73c | 14.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.