Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bfb906478c4b122ac55699de7b2dd2f54a8f4041ebbb8b6d550e0fbeca16186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,900
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 6c | 2,709$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.01 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 24c | 1,945$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab15…46e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,732$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…d1fdbacked No | 75c | 1,321$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6e…e39dbacked No | 76c | 984.52$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 24c | 933.2$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.29 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 25c | 739.49$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…fccbbacked Yes | 18c | 721.66$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8da…d488backed Yes | 13c | 605.88$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 3c | 579.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 98 | 35.7%35 W · 63 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 78c | 573.31$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 560.44$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.93 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f26…327fbacked Yes | 23c | 436.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcc…12a6backed No | 79c | 338.28$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 5c | 319.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 12c | 274.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dd…1b9bbacked Yes | 13c | 198.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked Yes | 18c | 194$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a24…f55dbacked Yes | 21c | 190$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…7504backed No | 79c | 137.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9f…cc6ebacked Yes | 14c | 137.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 17c | 114.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 89.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed Yes | 20c | 76.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes | 26c | 67.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…cb76backed No | 80c | 62.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked No | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 60.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 24c | 56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e6…5528backed Yes | 22c | 50.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…e6f5backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3811…1d6dbacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 78c | 13.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.