Stocks · resolved market
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69e5b6e31ce7e451c28d9b773fa4ed4522ebff9066875be3f004c74bbd732b14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 41c | 1,434$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18b…3917backed Yes | 18c | 1,175$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$957.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…46e6backed No | 69c | 999.98$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…4ea2backed Yes | 44c | 703.87$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 25c | 599.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 31c | 558.66$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.9 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +94%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 44c | 452.76$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +230%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 14c | 443.24$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.3 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +66%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5678…e468backed No | 68c | 400.73$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Yes | 78c | 382.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 32c | 377.49$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.53 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a4…debabacked Yes | 27c | 365.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…ff94backed No | 65c | 308.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…0c7ebacked Yes | 34c | 303.48$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +61%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 271.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.48 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +268%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 40c | 250$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8666…d7c7backed Yes | 70c | 248.62$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…1284backed Yes | 42c | 248.08$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…a1e2backed Yes | 40c | 230.98$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.47 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…7d17backed Yes | 31c | 227.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa255…4e23backed No | 32c | 199.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ac…e928backed Yes | 39c | 188.9$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 18c | 185.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.86 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +137.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 150.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.21 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec29…d5c1backed No | 75c | 133.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc6…bb12backed Yes | 43c | 109.62$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 30c | 107.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked No | 15c | 106.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 104.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.49 | 1,443 | 8.8%127 W · 1,316 L | -53.1wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…e040backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…0a8fbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 26c | 97.64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 32c | 88.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 32c | 80.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.71 | 86 | 23.3%20 W · 66 L | -8.8wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 42c | 79.27$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 65c | 77.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed3…6f56backed Yes | 42c | 72.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 21c | 66.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…1359backed Yes | 30c | 65.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 28c | 65.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 61.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…5610backed Yes | 35c | 56.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x909f…431abacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f748backed No | 61c | 49.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191d…9cafbacked Yes | 31c | 48.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 123 | 60.2%74 W · 49 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b9…b0c1backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd7…203fbacked No | 61c | 39.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38bb…e3e8backed Yes | 39c | 37.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ff…3c75backed Yes | 28c | 37.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5583…aacdbacked Yes | 58c | 35.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…0fa5backed Yes | 34c | 35.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 27.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,050 (HIGH) in June?this page
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,500 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,600 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,700 (LOW) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,900 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,150 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,300 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,450 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June?Yes won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,850 (HIGH) in June?No won
- Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.