TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5106…22e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 58 out of 100; worst CS2 at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3450%17 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+83.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$11.11
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.26
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.85
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+111.1%+$22
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.97
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.83
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.86
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+53.9%+$16.01
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.72
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+131%+$38.92
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+159.3%+$28.07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$29.88
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$45.3
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+55.1%+$16.38
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$32.61
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$5.48
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.86
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+83%+$24.66
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+2,450.6%+$556.29
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.88
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.13
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT4100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+129.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$12.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+170.4%+$170.43
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$17.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$7.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$9.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Asuncion: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Gianluca Cadenassobacked Alvaro Guillen Meza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.