AI · resolved market
VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481a5bd7c01c269006581d47ee4543c0de8adac8235ba498a7b99cb62c60154b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa652…8e90backed No | 52c | 961.47$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 6c | 781.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 716.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57c…0652backed Yes | 10c | 497.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 43c | 478$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 33c | 316.01$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.51 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 280.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51c5…84c9backed Yes | 51c | 276.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 258.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…3834backed Yes | 21c | 230.69$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…097cbacked No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 195.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 8c | 193.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 9c | 190.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc289…fedabacked Yes | 8c | 182.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 168.97$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 18c | 117.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…9d7dbacked Yes | 23c | 87.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 57c | 84.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 22c | 74.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 18c | 55.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed No | 79c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 51c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 38c | 37.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1964…5e04backed No | 79c | 31.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa1…10e7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2387…abe1backed No | 58c | 24.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VEO 4 released by March 31, 2026?this page
- VEO 4 released by April 30, 2026?No won
- VEO 4 released by February 28, 2026?No won
- VEO 4 released by January 31, 2026?No won
- VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.