Middle East · resolved market
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe9d9df6477a3e610704d41daa48d0678f50c88505e8695c1aecb53720a31d2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd747…8667backed Yes | 3c | 25,062$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.18 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…67e3backed Yes | 1c | 20,043$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.71 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…c88cbacked Yes | 6c | 9,588$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,852$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 5c | 7,678$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 7,629$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 3c | 6,557$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.65 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.52 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,230$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.24 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…f0d9backed Yes | 2c | 6,214$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6e…8931backed Yes | 3c | 5,770$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 3c | 4,900$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 2c | 4,633$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes | 2c | 4,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 2c | 4,035$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.13 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 3,606$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c93…6df6backed Yes | 2c | 3,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,148$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…a5c2backed Yes | 2c | 3,025$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 4c | 2,780$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,695$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.7 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…6a1bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,631$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 41 | 14.6%6 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…9e16backed Yes | 2c | 2,630$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…283fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,418$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,366$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,127$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 29.1%52 W · 127 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd512…79b3backed Yes | 3c | 1,939$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,918$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 2c | 1,901$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 1,846$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,840$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 492 | 8.7%43 W · 449 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,606$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…c98bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,514$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…c72cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,317$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 1,239$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 1,131$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…8c9dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 2c | 980$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 973.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 1c | 933.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes | 5c | 866.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 1c | 850.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | +20.7wins | +0.16per pick | 33cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 3c | 738.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba8…f383backed Yes | 2c | 663.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 2cpaid | +1,235.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5742…5e12backed Yes | 5c | 600$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf92b…57efbacked Yes | 6c | 508.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 37cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 6c | 508.02$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 503.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c79…23c2backed Yes | 2c | 499.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…0232backed Yes | 2c | 499.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 3c | 497.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 2c | 488.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…fa14backed Yes | 9c | 451.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…870ebacked Yes | 5c | 365$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…8047backed Yes | 6c | 192.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaade…71f1backed Yes | 11c | 136.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…c1c4backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9893…b2cebacked Yes | 9c | 105.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +214.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.