Token Launches · resolved market
Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa9547464c0354a824900195ac798165f917d7e22b0da7109a6c5bdc5f9b9f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 0c | 7,997$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed No | 1c | 4,510$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,348$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fed…5550backed No | 0c | 4,152$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 7c | 3,957$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84f…bc44backed No | 10c | 1,076$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 1,055$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 7c | 723$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 11c | 544.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e7…a190backed Yes | 9c | 535$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +505.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33d7…fc2ebacked Yes | 77c | 521.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 3c | 399.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 112 | 2.7%3 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 11c | 268.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed No | 8c | 213.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…7328backed No | 10c | 204.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb63…fbdcbacked No | 11c | 179.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 15c | 125.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 40c | 113.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…25f8backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff39…8dffbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 17c | 97.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tria launch a token by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Tria launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Tria launch a token by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Tria launch a token by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.