Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3f41c834550a951c63af492787c8abbcff6c5e3451399a0aec8304fc9bdaf88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,837
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,837 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 49c | 498.45$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.9 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 73c | 456.12$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 51c | 265.32$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.65 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 24c | 219.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 74c | 160.73$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 148.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 56c | 104.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…dc8fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 77.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 73.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 46c | 63.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 20c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 53.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 51c | 48.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 78c | 48.73$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…0915backed Yes | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 62c | 42.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 41.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed No | 58c | 38.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 55c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed No | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…3f5ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…dd10backed Yes | 52c | 30.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 29.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…55eebacked Yes | 45c | 27.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 60c | 27.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked No | 61c | 26.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 58c | 25.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd86d…71e4backed No | 60c | 21.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…4743backed No | 55c | 19.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -5.8wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 72c | 18.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 17.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fe…3656backed No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 69cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f4…bf3abacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 14.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f71…1c14backed Yes | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 42-43°F on February 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 38-39°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on February 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on February 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.