Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f5045f35d3b92af1a4bea2e7e0f20734425cb5587bcece7d89554d3adc19535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5b2…b87dbacked Yes | 4c | 21,305$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.29 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 76c | 18,299$13,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,476.01 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 4,369$1,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.91 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 26c | 3,338$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.13 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,673$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 585.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Yes | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 76c | 379.99$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 282.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 77c | 258.83$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…edacbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…33c1backed Yes | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 15.5%16 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…9a3dbacked Yes | 29c | 135.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 30cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…bbb3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…89e4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 54c | 74.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf85…d62ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8741…5b0abacked No | 72c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc489…bc95backed No | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 76c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 15-21?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 15-21?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 15-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.