Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60a7b0ec9bf34a4f1f94b8a2b72108b079bf2eb03af954fbd97dd39eab526444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $232,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $239,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $232,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes | 2c | 28,099$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…7dd1backed Yes | 34c | 9,999$3,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 20c | 9,183$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,797.18 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…9bfdbacked Yes | 0c | 7,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 30c | 6,891$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.15 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,231$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.69 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 1c | 5,416$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 3c | 3,344$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,221$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 1c | 2,572$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Yes | 18c | 2,391$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2305…04f2backed Yes | 2c | 1,978$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,739$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 65c | 1,546$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69e…75d7backed No | 71c | 1,346$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,253$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.11 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405d…29d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,215$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 30c | 1,128$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.24 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 78c | 1,105$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.73 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…aa2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,029$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 34c | 1,012$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.51 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b8…0368backed Yes | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 76c | 612.24$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.24 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed No | 47c | 532.19$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.19 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 15c | 506.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 75c | 489.33$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.33 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 76c | 472.71$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd175…bb3abacked No | 73c | 410.96$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked No | 55c | 329.05$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 328.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 73c | 316$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.88 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5274…1fe4backed Yes | 7c | 315$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed No | 62c | 300$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…05efbacked No | 74c | 276.42$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 12c | 272.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 5c | 257.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 17c | 230.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 79c | 190.4$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed No | 78c | 153.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8042…82a7backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 28c | 142.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 27c | 138.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca76…c885backed Yes | 15c | 134.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 15c | 133$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 14c | 129.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87d…8cafbacked No | 42c | 119.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 48c | 105.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 52c | 105.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…b1f1backed Yes | 20c | 88.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…2bf4backed No | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa020…d807backed Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…27abbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a5…eb20backed Yes | 57c | 49.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…9597backed Yes | 27c | 49.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 62c | 43.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…af64backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed No | 63c | 38.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ff…4e38backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.