Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad7a767ebdd69c29a060b1ba2a5d40d41085706ee0bed390ff15e5ba3a6da010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $243,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb82…212cbacked Yes | 2c | 24,971$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2476…8436backed Yes | 5c | 23,782$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 6c | 11,726$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.94 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 2c | 4,240$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,145$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ce…a0aebacked Yes | 3c | 3,639$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 0c | 2,650$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,173$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 6c | 2,063$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.41 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…6935backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,743$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…aa2ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,606$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5274…1fe4backed Yes | 3c | 1,536$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…a7c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,445$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…bf3ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,418$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcd…1771backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf06…a211backed Yes | 2c | 1,233$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,199$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d9…23f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,152$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…6457backed Yes | 9c | 1,122$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,068$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…89b4backed Yes | 2c | 1,046$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,029$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 1c | 1,027$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bae…b6f3backed Yes | 2c | 1,008$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 3c | 867.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 716.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…0becbacked Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 3c | 617$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5990…4fb8backed Yes | 3c | 523.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…754fbacked Yes | 3c | 362.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…a30abacked Yes | 7c | 165.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde9…4bd5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…ab05backed Yes | 16c | 97.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 10-16?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 10-16?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 10-16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.