TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$295,689
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$305,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $295,689 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x06dc…4524backed Yes9c25,627$2,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,280.9316253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cfd…95c4backed Yes4c19,125$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x533c…2658backed Yes9c7,832$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No64c5,254$3,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.132070%14 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes25c4,888$1,207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.55424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1963…9bfdbacked Yes7c4,320$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.79130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes4c3,963$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.981379.5%13 W · 124 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+25.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa28e…1654backed Yes32c3,791$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6298…b24bbacked Yes3c3,531$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.23128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e2…282fbacked Yes8c2,552$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197407.5%3 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-64.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58d9…23f3backed Yes32c2,342$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.322917.2%5 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc501…edb6backed Yes16c2,146$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3832…1527backed Yes47c2,077$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.17333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206026.7%16 W · 44 L-5.6wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes24c1,952$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.14205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc20…8ed3backed No68c1,891$1,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No59c1,840$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.18625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes30c1,720$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.72544%11 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x805f…54a4backed Yes43c1,716$738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No60c1,659$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.617163.4%45 W · 26 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes3c1,513$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.714754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5e…3e6ebacked No66c1,500$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes10c1,250$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes9c1,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993215.6%5 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-48.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed Yes9c1,001$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.517112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe27c…51dbbacked No74c1,000$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes3c999.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes4c971.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.063915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43a6…8b32backed No68c956.66$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3035470.4%38 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked Yes28c887.51$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes23c873.07$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.8758126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d5…5753backed Yes1c871.33$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.26425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid-58.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec35…cea9backed Yes22c854.17$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.9100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes5c799.96$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.512012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bca…824ebacked Yes6c777$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x137f…6689backed Yes3c736.73$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.732846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054a…f218backed Yes5c736.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.71283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes3c647.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921970%0 W · 197 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…d034backed Yes54c596.18$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.941030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9445…e3abbacked Yes7c553.01$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a6b…196cbacked Yes9c538.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0580…fcc4backed No65c500.7$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.245100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+95.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xadb5…4d50backed Yes3c500.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf1…6ca1backed No79c500$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1051080%8 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd8d5…8935backed Yes5c499.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes40c496.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+36.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5560…dfebbacked Yes53c489.99$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed No71c487.05$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.773935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c3…d0efbacked No68c436.13$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.138467.9%57 W · 27 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x378a…114bbacked Yes36c416.67$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cad…6feabacked No65c400$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1403171%22 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd175…bb3abacked No79c379.81$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.815100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca68…bd3abacked Yes5c374.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes27c365.52$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9711330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes36c335.62$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2311328.3%32 W · 81 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1383…0516backed Yes9c304.1$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.372825%7 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+526.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcaac…c198backed No69c287.02$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.022479.2%19 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f11…15b5backed Yes5c285.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes42c221.32$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.561942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+135%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e5…c48dbacked Yes29c211.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4730%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x33fb…897cbacked Yes6c181.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.765614.3%8 W · 48 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc36…e9debacked No59c162.73$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.968100%8 W · 0 L+5.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+693.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7fca…ac29backed No75c157$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.651040%4 W · 6 L-3.4wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-47%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes10c153$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes13c137.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88ce…7849backed Yes27c127.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.86650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+478.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c30…8665backed No46c105$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502572%18 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258470.2%59 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242360.9%14 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick71cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415757.9%33 W · 24 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+18.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59db…1d13backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94eb…17a3backed Yes19c95.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb845…d46bbacked Yes25c80.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134e…d718backed No66c80$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.23083.3%25 W · 5 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+37.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe94d…c69abacked No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2b1…b789backed Yes40c72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c37…a324backed Yes55c70.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-27.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a43…a472backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.05825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.121651.4%111 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbef1…89e3backed Yes24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c7…b3d1backed Yes54c54.55$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-36.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d7…46bfbacked No63c50.62$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.73250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-82.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x633e…d305backed Yes57c43.17$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.49714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick18cpaid+40.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8314…6767backed Yes44c41.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.391323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca76…c885backed Yes29c41.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff1…1be9backed No73c40.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.86560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfec4…cfc8backed No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6b7…ccd4backed No74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.67100%7 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+47.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1fcd…24b8backed No61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7322…bccebacked No51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7942…b1f1backed Yes39c38.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd356…963dbacked Yes34c35.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e13…e3e1backed Yes38c30.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaedb…91fdbacked Yes51c27.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40a0…4f97backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed No59c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.