Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94574217f9e3a4694b3976e89de85c89d8a95363732244198e3abc001bd31fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cdb…172cbacked Yes | 4c | 8,884$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,729$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.31 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…2827backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,386$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.37 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 18c | 4,586$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$844.22 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,333$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 2,879$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…0ad4backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 45c | 2,638$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.85 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,606$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.73 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…c793backed Yes | 2c | 2,457$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ec…c745backed Yes | 0c | 2,325$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd980…5be0backed Yes | 1c | 2,316$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 112 | 10.7%12 W · 100 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Yes | 47c | 2,000$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.43 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc20…8ed3backed No | 71c | 1,986$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…f23cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,560$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.11 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 30c | 1,343$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.89 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed No | 77c | 1,087$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fca…ac29backed No | 74c | 1,050$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ce…6da0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 72c | 859.55$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…bbf1backed Yes | 3c | 750.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +1,162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed Yes | 24c | 713$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.12 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 20c | 700.3$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.69 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 2c | 532.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 136 | 24.3%33 W · 103 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 4c | 473.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63fb…70a2backed Yes | 38c | 399.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 25c | 280$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 77c | 258.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed No | 77c | 258.44$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 213.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…230abacked Yes | 51c | 182.53$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.09 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc505…b530backed Yes | 22c | 168.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 24c | 142.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…6678backed No | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Yes | 43c | 111.86$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Yes | 22c | 63.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4076…3ca6backed Yes | 39c | 35.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed No | 64c | 31.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…0c49backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 77c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…a472backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc27b…b85ebacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…e3c0backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.