TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$231,626
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,626 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes12c29,144$3,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,667.4510221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed Yes1c20,233$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,98711813.6%16 W · 102 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick4cpaid+281.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xddae…52c4backed Yes1c14,714$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,538.613218.8%6 W · 26 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick4cpaid+842%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x06dc…4524backed Yes48c13,573$6,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,060.9616253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes25c8,825$2,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,589.03205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-80.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked No61c5,404$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.1111720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c4,657$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,609.714754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071e…a103backed No79c4,540$3,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes35c4,031$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.8858126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes19c3,759$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,044.787828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No72c3,425$2,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,460.7528113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes18c2,486$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,050.435424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked No56c1,585$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.628625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c1,216$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.881,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…8c5abacked No75c1,000$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cc8…f1b3backed No76c999.99$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f82…bbf1backed Yes3c757.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+1,162.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb50…e61dbacked Yes15c734.83$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+568%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd14…1c17backed Yes41c704$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.265954.2%32 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes10c674.8$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.427156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked Yes75c654.32$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.271190.9%10 W · 1 L+6.8wins+0.62per pick29cpaid+713.2%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0xec83…13f7backed Yes2c571.19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.771618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick5cpaid+464.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes10c400$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.032339.1%9 W · 14 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+956.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked Yes24c389.41$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.549964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xc505…b530backed No75c366.77$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.240%0 W · 4 L-2.5wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No7c355$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.812417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcdd…d359backed Yes76c300$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.5887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cad…6feabacked No27c300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.223171%22 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick67cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x872a…5982backed Yes34c295.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.635100%5 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+924.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfc36…e9debacked Yes33c292.03$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1978100%8 W · 0 L+5.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+693.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked No53c266.48$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403148.4%15 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe35b…b542backed Yes6c258.94$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.371181.8%9 W · 2 L+8.3wins+0.75per pick7cpaid+2,239.9%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes10c247.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.521233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+496.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No21c200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427112.7%9 W · 62 L-6.4wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes25c118.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.531942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+135%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06fb…9713backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+166.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x240f…ac94backed Yes28c95.04$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No19c78.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5831523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f45…97cebacked Yes20c72.43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.191338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e0…2a91backed Yes20c68.93$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.424100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+295.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2255…39a9backed Yes29c67.12$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc883…4ea1backed No71c56.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.99757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick72cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae92…caf0backed Yes33c48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+173.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13c4…f41dbacked No79c46.75$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf17f…600cbacked No79c35$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.721560%9 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick73cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3057…3bd6backed Yes74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.