Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x006d983c68aceeff2568f60f4b681de4f6435c78aa435ab2cb3b88f9d05802d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $217,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 12c | 29,144$3,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,667.45 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 1c | 20,233$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,987 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 1c | 14,714$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,538.61 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 48c | 13,573$6,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,060.96 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 25c | 8,825$2,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,589.03 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 61c | 5,404$3,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.11 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,657$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,609.71 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…a103backed No | 79c | 4,540$3,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 35c | 4,031$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.88 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 19c | 3,759$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.7 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 72c | 3,425$2,461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460.75 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,486$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.43 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 56c | 1,585$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$884.62 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,216$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…8c5abacked No | 75c | 1,000$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 76c | 999.99$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f82…bbf1backed Yes | 3c | 757.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +1,162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb50…e61dbacked Yes | 15c | 734.83$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +568%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 41c | 704$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.26 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 10c | 674.8$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.42 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 75c | 654.32$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.27 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 2c | 571.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.77 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 10c | 400$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +956.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 24c | 389.41$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.54 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc505…b530backed No | 75c | 366.77$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 355$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…5982backed Yes | 34c | 295.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +924.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…e9debacked Yes | 33c | 292.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +693.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 53c | 266.48$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 6c | 258.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 10c | 247.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 25c | 118.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +135%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fb…9713backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x240f…ac94backed Yes | 28c | 95.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 19c | 78.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…97cebacked Yes | 20c | 72.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…2a91backed Yes | 20c | 68.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +295.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…39a9backed Yes | 29c | 67.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed No | 71c | 56.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…caf0backed Yes | 33c | 48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13c4…f41dbacked No | 79c | 46.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…3bd6backed Yes | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.