Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198608f3ad70406f55c4d7040193280ed81a80ac28e67b55ad6941ba49f0c311
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab51…2473backed Yes | 3c | 23,090$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,480.21 | 118 | 13.6%16 W · 102 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +281.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…a103backed No | 56c | 12,492$6,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,940.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 43c | 9,819$4,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,595.73 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 49c | 8,001$3,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,947.4 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 80c | 7,794$6,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,220.94 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 29c | 6,656$1,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,750.35 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 6c | 6,500$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,097 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 38c | 6,086$2,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,751.9 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 30c | 4,640$1,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,242.88 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 57c | 3,967$2,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,696.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…b050backed No | 45c | 3,000$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa68c…f805backed Yes | 11c | 2,482$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +1,954.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…1e7cbacked Yes | 53c | 2,061$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 8c | 1,909$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,758.39 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 56c | 1,804$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.05 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42fc…9594backed Yes | 1c | 1,797$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,772.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +951%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…e9debacked Yes | 3c | 1,709$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.41 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +693.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,707$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.91 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 60c | 1,671$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 53c | 1,354$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.44 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 58c | 1,316$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.86 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7375…572cbacked No | 54c | 1,251$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 10c | 1,199$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 24c | 1,036$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.35 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc92f…f930backed No | 54c | 927.34$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…ac0abacked Yes | 54c | 887.15$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 10c | 781.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…1c10backed Yes | 4c | 769.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +1,429.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 8c | 649.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 18c | 549.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.07 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 73c | 500$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.5 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 20c | 473.74$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.52 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c06…9621backed No | 58c | 411.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 65c | 403.99$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…5982backed Yes | 13c | 395.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +924.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…e6adbacked No | 45c | 295.4$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc4…cd03backed Yes | 5c | 294.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +494.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…ca2dbacked Yes | 7c | 289.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +903.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…7d27backed No | 46c | 236.1$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 8c | 228.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 10c | 217.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +135%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…172cbacked Yes | 47c | 203.53$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5763…1c22backed No | 64c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 179.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 163.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…2642backed No | 45c | 151.23$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…2a91backed Yes | 35c | 149.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +295.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88f2…a6c1backed No | 45c | 142.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ff…f398backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…2177backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…008bbacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…1cfbbacked No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7525…fd3cbacked No | 43c | 96.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed No | 45c | 71.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed No | 45c | 71.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…c6a3backed No | 45c | 68.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…3e0fbacked No | 37c | 53.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d95…cd99backed No | 49c | 51.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f1…dfeebacked No | 47c | 48.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…2438backed Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…a5e7backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…caf0backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +173.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…b789backed Yes | 50c | 36.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed No | 57c | 32.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 36c | 27.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 52c | 27.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +905.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked No | 55c | 26.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 57c | 23.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2255…39a9backed Yes | 46c | 22.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5b…acdcbacked No | 55c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…a67cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…74a0backed No | 61c | 19.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.