Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5491321d20f5ff7ac2a74ddb06c093ff83c80dd2ffcab014340340dc2b5c440c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $166,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $166,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 9,123$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,576.04 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 40c | 7,594$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,519.85 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 27c | 6,589$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,836 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 50c | 6,355$3,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200.55 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed No | 0c | 5,991$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 34c | 5,450$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.75 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdd…5585backed Yes | 5c | 4,825$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,593.16 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…3476backed No | 0c | 3,650$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5a…da84backed Yes | 54c | 3,505$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 48c | 3,269$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.85 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…172cbacked Yes | 18c | 2,902$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,193$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,108.11 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 36c | 1,903$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.86 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…08cebacked Yes | 8c | 1,806$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +726.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,485.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 20c | 1,200$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.9 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 43c | 947.1$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.34 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes | 24c | 816.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 5c | 778.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.86 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed No | 74c | 705.99$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…6b8cbacked Yes | 3c | 700$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,067.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…2827backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 3cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 33c | 577.7$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.22 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 533.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.78 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…e6f6backed Yes | 4c | 490$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…1f65backed Yes | 5c | 443.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +1,830%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…e9debacked Yes | 7c | 424.55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.53 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +693.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed No | 53c | 420.92$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.58 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa68c…f805backed Yes | 36c | 397.19$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +1,954.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 51c | 378$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.97 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d7…ca2dbacked Yes | 6c | 312.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 10cpaid | +903.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc852…58d7backed Yes | 4c | 249.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,172.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce5a…8188backed Yes | 8c | 247.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,137.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…e0efbacked No | 58c | 216.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.58 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked No | 36c | 202.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7962…ea03backed Yes | 10c | 202.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +910.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…b498backed No | 27c | 182.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…a65abacked No | 66c | 134.81$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…dd67backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 78c | 127.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5e…3921backed Yes | 28c | 125.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.16 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…bed1backed Yes | 24c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cb…a310backed Yes | 35c | 98.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…e838backed No | 27c | 91.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…3e0fbacked No | 24c | 75.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…b144backed Yes | 40c | 59.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 57.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0c…faf5backed No | 64c | 52.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…9301backed No | 64c | 52.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa131…2438backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 58c | 46.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…68bcbacked No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…a5e7backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef1…74a0backed No | 47c | 29.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.