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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,309
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,467

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,309 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe94b…5abebacked No60c11,980$7,239 inLost-$7,238.978625.6%22 W · 64 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…4524backed Yes33c10,956$3,633 inWon+$7,322.5116253.7%87 W · 75 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7eac…9c7abacked No6c10,080$600 inLost-$60010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d40…335ebacked No66c8,312$5,451 inLost-$5,450.61729.4%5 W · 12 L-5.1wins-0.30per pick59cpaid-42.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x6889…6946backed No7c7,701$552 inLost-$552.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes14c6,262$860 inWon+$5,401.9487828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes6c5,839$347 inWon+$5,491.661466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa141…d4bbbacked No9c5,484$508 inLost-$508.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes26c5,107$1,333 inWon+$3,773.535424.1%13 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+67.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes7c4,608$345 inWon+$4,263.5458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed No80c3,500$2,794 inLost-$2,793.973228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72a0…c059backed Yes14c3,109$449 inWon+$2,660.717156.3%40 W · 31 L+14.8wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+113.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x997c…251ebacked No58c2,940$1,713 inLost-$1,713.411720.5%24 W · 93 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb08…2b30backed No61c1,954$1,200 inLost-$1,2002147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd143…83ecbacked Yes35c1,557$538 inWon+$1,019.5510221.6%22 W · 80 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x726f…d8e7backed Yes26c1,287$340 inWon+$946.5911330.1%34 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed Yes20c1,172$230 inWon+$941.283930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No2c1,107$23 inLost-$22.52931%9 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3080…fa4abacked Yes7c997$66 inWon+$931.2128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed No63c809.46$514 inLost-$514.013915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid+30.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9ff…d3bfbacked Yes6c796.35$50 inWon+$746.355117.6%9 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes8c794.53$61 inWon+$733.53904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffa9…db6cbacked Yes9c789.96$75 inWon+$714.961643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+64.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes5c729.06$35 inWon+$694.0863835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c607.62$22 inWon+$585.881,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe616…a30abacked Yes4c505.68$20 inWon+$485.45119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+127.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5b…26f4backed Yes7c441.47$30 inWon+$411.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+635.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa813…04fbbacked Yes44c360.48$158 inWon+$202.789964.6%64 W · 35 L+17.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+43.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfc36…e9debacked Yes36c265.16$95 inWon+$169.918100%8 W · 0 L+5.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+693.3%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xd1ef…f23cbacked Yes35c106.64$37 inWon+$69.521833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb42b…afe0backed Yes37c81.02$30 inWon+$51.21668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+145.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc97b…8a22backed Yes62c61.5$38 inWon+$23.173100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+145.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x083c…65f2backed Yes39c38$15 inWon+$23.141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No47c29.75$14 inLost-$14.062999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48bb…89dfbacked Yes68c21.95$15 inWon+$7.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.