Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b28246eebadd55ea962262ff6e3721e34ed87fe88b7cd14251c789add46759
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 51c | 19,199$9,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,736.02 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 33c | 16,713$5,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,207.83 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 41c | 11,934$4,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,886.04 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked Yes | 32c | 7,270$2,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,916.96 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 51c | 6,361$3,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,139.09 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 42c | 4,141$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,387.85 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 59c | 3,485$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.77 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 59c | 2,550$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…f23cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,361$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805f…54a4backed Yes | 69c | 1,892$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…b686backed No | 62c | 1,716$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.52 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 35c | 1,502$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.97 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 76c | 1,271$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.44 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2b30backed No | 49c | 1,147$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 54c | 1,055$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.33 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 34c | 982.41$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.46 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Yes | 25c | 896.8$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked No | 47c | 872$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.66 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…8de2backed No | 46c | 870.92$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 59c | 791$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.19 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 35c | 718.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.13 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc505…b530backed No | 72c | 716.93$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 69c | 694.47$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.89 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 68c | 693.41$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.6 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…954abacked Yes | 45c | 637.53$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 3c | 583.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 2.5%1 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 67c | 514.81$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.35 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…7d08backed Yes | 35c | 499.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 78c | 481.59$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 64c | 407.69$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bf…e441backed No | 65c | 403.82$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…e9debacked Yes | 36c | 396.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.01 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +5.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +693.3%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 50c | 373.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.9 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa758…444dbacked No | 80c | 195.8$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf26…6d04backed No | 70c | 142.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8944…7b42backed No | 72c | 132$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaea4…0286backed No | 73c | 123.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaecd…27abbacked No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d7…46bfbacked No | 59c | 83.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 65c | 74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ee…a360backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…4ea1backed No | 71c | 56.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 51c | 52.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 77c | 51.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc095…c1c5backed No | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed Yes | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc650…b5c2backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…0c49backed No | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…963dbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe8…5135backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…03eabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 18cpaid | +399.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…600cbacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…805bbacked No | 62c | 33.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fb…9713backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +166.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96be…9947backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…b789backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…a472backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…07aebacked No | 63c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37b…da0cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…f384backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134e…d718backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 18.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…e3c0backed No | 66c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.