Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5aee09e35e1dd7807c3a3a5aef6a923acef3c1bf56f42543533ad1375ed98f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,940
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $186,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,940 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 63c | 13,666$8,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,078.44 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 2c | 13,483$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,153.69 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…ed1abacked Yes | 2c | 8,574$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,385.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,448.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 48c | 8,350$4,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.86 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 68c | 6,215$4,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,248.39 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed No | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 80c | 4,775$3,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,812.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 30c | 4,429$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.44 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 7c | 4,207$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,907.23 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 38c | 3,663$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.57 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 3,622$1,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,991.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 3c | 3,197$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.46 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 4c | 3,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked No | 63c | 2,883$1,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.83 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 2,701$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,633.02 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 30c | 1,400$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.6 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 45c | 1,398$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.78 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…105dbacked No | 49c | 1,356$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.33 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 25c | 1,307$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.23 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec83…13f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,302$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,261.31 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 5cpaid | +464.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,246$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.42 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed Yes | 51c | 1,210$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.51 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 53c | 1,119$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.46 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b02…7d08backed No | 37c | 1,010$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 61c | 886.13$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.59 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 58c | 874.02$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.95 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 2c | 833.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 46c | 790.45$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.96 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30cb…b901backed No | 55c | 750$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 2c | 693.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.1 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…ad6bbacked Yes | 48c | 600$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…9722backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +474.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 52c | 397.59$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.32 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22af…399abacked Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked No | 44c | 300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.5 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…afe0backed Yes | 9c | 292.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.93 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed No | 21c | 281.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 45c | 279.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.02 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 14c | 266.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.97 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 56c | 208.05$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.75 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 149.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…1c10backed Yes | 20c | 148.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +1,429.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…1c17backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…03eabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 18cpaid | +399.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 31c | 81.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed No | 20c | 70.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…8a22backed Yes | 55c | 57.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc27b…b85ebacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 41c | 38.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 64c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468b…68a5backed No | 46c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1874…594fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +141.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed Yes | 55c | 24.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.