Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8a0146f1868946501ba99ae74bbf6d2e974c47025d77896b39b4892025934a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 22c | 11,203$2,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,750.01 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa68c…f805backed Yes | 2c | 6,977$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,837.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +1,954.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…f17fbacked Yes | 80c | 6,839$5,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…a103backed No | 78c | 6,408$4,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,976.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…251ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,722$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,840.01 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe853…8137backed Yes | 2c | 5,194$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,077.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,348%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7187…f08bbacked No | 44c | 4,524$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.74 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 52c | 3,952$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,888.48 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,734$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,380.91 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 73c | 3,517$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,554.19 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35b…b542backed Yes | 4c | 3,195$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,078.86 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +8.3wins | +0.75per pick | 7cpaid | +2,239.9%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed Yes | 57c | 2,999$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7375…572cbacked No | 27c | 2,923$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 48c | 2,000$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.37 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…52c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,989$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.86 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 4cpaid | +842%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 67c | 1,603$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.72 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…27febacked Yes | 21c | 1,418$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +372.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 21c | 1,200$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…5982backed Yes | 4c | 1,198$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,147.67 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +924.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d40…335ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,036$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.13 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…172cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,021$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 3c | 979.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.03 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…7e98backed Yes | 8c | 926.89$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 23cpaid | +340.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e4…4ec7backed No | 46c | 893$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 46c | 623.31$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.19 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 33c | 612.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 3c | 589.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +135%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 17c | 496.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.44 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked No | 24c | 492.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…e0efbacked No | 57c | 446.07$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 7c | 439.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.63 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…d359backed Yes | 68c | 400$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.53 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc7…4467backed No | 80c | 365.95$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked Yes | 21c | 264.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 21c | 253.28$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.43 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88ce…7849backed Yes | 7c | 206.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…cb99backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +905.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…2a91backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +295.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…03eabacked Yes | 15c | 129.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.62per pick | 18cpaid | +399.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…494bbacked Yes | 19c | 126.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.98 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…2443backed Yes | 18c | 124.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +465.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…9301backed No | 47c | 108.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0c…faf5backed No | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…9e8dbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b7…98aebacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…08cebacked Yes | 25c | 76.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +726.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…8665backed No | 47c | 70.41$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 67.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x083c…65f2backed No | 33c | 66.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…6cc3backed No | 33c | 61.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…7d6fbacked No | 33c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…b401backed No | 30c | 49.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…efd8backed Yes | 34c | 46.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bd…3e0fbacked No | 46c | 41.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb486…214bbacked No | 79c | 31.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 77c | 15.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 78c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 August 17-23?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 17-23?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 August 17-23?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 August 17-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.