Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76fe7aa36c62f240581a36d7f95dd8b96cae72a8df48a10f7a2405b659e603b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,556
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 11,888$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.83 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 12c | 9,405$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.83 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 26c | 3,631$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.03 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…c3b2backed Yes | 19c | 3,476$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes | 9c | 3,368$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 70 | 18.6%13 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked Yes | 7c | 3,003$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.67 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed No | 79c | 2,163$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.48 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…8b32backed Yes | 53c | 1,500$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.44 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.45 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 4c | 1,234$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 7c | 1,021$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0402…4e41backed Yes | 50c | 960$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 17c | 729.59$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb22e…46f0backed Yes | 12c | 648.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…a615backed Yes | 9c | 549.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 8c | 495.03$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde65…5218backed Yes | 9c | 450$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 416.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2b…a201backed No | 48c | 371.02$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…6feabacked No | 75c | 305$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.82 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 37c | 226$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 65c | 200$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.52 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…bc8dbacked No | 68c | 195.4$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +76%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 60c | 191.35$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…744fbacked Yes | 12c | 175.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 60c | 169.5$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed Yes | 16c | 159.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…753dbacked Yes | 68c | 146.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +6.8wins | +0.62per pick | 29cpaid | +713.2%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 32c | 146$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20d0…ee98backed Yes | 8c | 141.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 73c | 133.87$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.73 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…3947backed Yes | 50c | 125.55$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.69 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba15…7579backed Yes | 47c | 95.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…9d74backed Yes | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 39cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…aab9backed No | 49c | 51.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1768…89e4backed No | 64c | 39.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf47f…15adbacked Yes | 40c | 26.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…1ecfbacked Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 60c | 19.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…e01bbacked No | 66c | 16.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.