Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0729e04900cf4771e22e3508f3b95988c74c5d68edb8edaf89c9923f0eef55d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 71c | 3,954$2,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,823.33 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 29c | 3,643$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.86 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed No | 1c | 1,220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…8fa2backed No | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 800$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c6…3947backed Yes | 62c | 782.76$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.79 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 45c | 756.08$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.22 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…2866backed Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…868cbacked Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 65c | 512.55$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.39 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 69c | 351.81$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f32…efb8backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774a…57e6backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +150%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc409…4d2abacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 0%0 W · 48 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 48c | 298.35$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72a0…c059backed Yes | 47c | 289.93$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.83 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +14.8wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 63c | 270.56$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.56 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 40c | 201$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x006e…0786backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ec…d630backed Yes | 42c | 76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -76%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd5…aab9backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 47c | 28.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…df2bbacked Yes | 50c | 27.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7f…2764backed No | 51c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 22-28?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.