AI · resolved market
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4dbddeb3658bdc4ab4b6dfe595744653aae62952db916ffe1c88fe22cab7962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a07…1d4dbacked No | 1c | 1,834$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 58c | 1,079$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.63 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 900$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.09 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 6c | 750$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 12c | 725.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked No | 8c | 497.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 34c | 463$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.67 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 67c | 400$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 35c | 356.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.6 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 40c | 336.83$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 42c | 319.73$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.44 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed Yes | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.02 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 24c | 230$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.98 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 215$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 16c | 169.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 67c | 162.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 9c | 125.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 43c | 109$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 24c | 75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 46c | 71.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c12…748fbacked Yes | 39c | 67.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 45c | 51.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 67c | 51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8f…75eebacked No | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 77c | 48.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed No | 78c | 47.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 71c | 47.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed No | 48c | 45.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…6a44backed No | 46c | 40.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 35.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a25…3912backed No | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe179…63e9backed Yes | 30c | 33.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +69%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…ccfabacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?this page
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.