AI · resolved market
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x135a70794f2167bef82fd5dfda1d736e713963dba7fee1c277b6d843453a978d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 72c | 3,000$2,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.11 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 21c | 712.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 64c | 626.13$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 27c | 520.12$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.78 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 28c | 482.4$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf165…d277backed Yes | 31c | 400$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 312.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 17c | 290$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…30abbacked No | 60c | 235.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 18c | 212.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 32c | 199.21$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 32c | 188.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 14c | 187.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed Yes | 27c | 156.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 70c | 151.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 21c | 142$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 78c | 130$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1af…171abacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 19c | 112.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 110$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 43c | 105.72$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x31ab…86cfbacked No | 72c | 103.97$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 14c | 101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 68c | 85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 79.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 79c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 62c | 68.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 63.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 34c | 62.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 52c | 61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9381…8059backed Yes | 18c | 59.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…ba27backed Yes | 64c | 52.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…3761backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaea…6db6backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94d…6210backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…9ea9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 46c | 49.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a51…e98ebacked Yes | 74c | 48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 30c | 46.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 25c | 43.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Yes | 71c | 39.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked No | 55c | 34.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 49c | 32.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1062…d2ccbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2150…fa7bbacked Yes | 67c | 17.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?this page
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.