AI · resolved market
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f8de36a60cdd94cc6f89e18c80e4c46667ec29e48e07894224be576a936c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 48c | 3,000$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,563.54 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8df7…36c4backed Yes | 52c | 1,739$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…f247backed No | 62c | 1,078$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.18 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 954.4$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.42 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b965backed Yes | 8c | 588.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 60 | 15%9 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…331abacked Yes | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 430.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 419.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1d…ca4cbacked No | 58c | 410.41$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x936e…473fbacked No | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 51cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…9c25backed Yes | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 61c | 178.66$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f4…ab39backed No | 62c | 166.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked No | 59c | 127.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 16c | 116$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 111.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 52c | 111$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 58c | 104.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 104$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 14c | 94.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x51c9…8825backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked No | 69c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 69c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 60cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30?this page
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30?No won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $170B by June 30?Yes won
- Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $172.5B by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.