World Politics · resolved market
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f2b3614996946b67a75ec86cbe88ec414e9958f25cc6fa3e9f5baf709a8020
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 20c | 2,439$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 67c | 1,500$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.4 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 1,143$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.49 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 17c | 983.96$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.16 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac0…55f3backed Yes | 65c | 974.27$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 74c | 884.05$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.18 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked No | 13c | 863.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.48 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 58c | 860.41$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.19 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 80c | 589$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.2 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed No | 34c | 484.68$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.68 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 483.68$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.83 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed Yes | 77c | 382.58$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 25c | 352.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.15 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 15c | 350$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 55 | 5.5%3 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 33c | 320$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.8 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…8e57backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 65c | 299.98$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.99 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 31c | 261.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.01 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 5c | 239.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 10cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 20c | 237.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.49 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 36c | 225$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…42cfbacked Yes | 76c | 205$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c7…806ebacked No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.79 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 193.55$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.39 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 189$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 26c | 168.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.48 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 21c | 130.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 27c | 128.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.56 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed No | 33c | 127.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 24c | 124.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 22c | 121.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.81 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 23c | 112.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 23c | 112$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 79c | 110$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6668…be1cbacked Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 22c | 98.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.69 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes | 79c | 80.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3898…ea1fbacked Yes | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 23c | 72.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9133backed Yes | 75c | 72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Yes | 75c | 67.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 28c | 64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 69c | 61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 23c | 60.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 68c | 51.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 78c | 51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…7939backed Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.34per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…ef76backed No | 36c | 41.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…47cebacked No | 38c | 39.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 43c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b52…589abacked No | 33c | 36.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +111.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 36.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 67c | 36.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 28c | 35.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b0…dcdebacked Yes | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f3…c28dbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…9db4backed Yes | 80c | 22.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d2…6480backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca3…4ccdbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb65…103fbacked Yes | 68c | 19.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 67c | 18.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 70c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?this page
- Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.