World Politics · resolved market
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4764471ad1a03129357d5e07b16d2c74f0ef09b903897da69e9b798fa58abbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dca…3c13backed Yes | 25c | 3,494$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,619.23 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +11.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 21c | 2,857$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,262.96 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +16.1wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,124$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.55 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 20c | 888.2$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.56 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 72c | 807$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.3 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 683.17$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.49 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 541.2$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.47 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 529.95$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 79c | 404.99$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.66 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 43c | 366.27$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 345$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.61 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 79c | 333$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.07 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 321.04$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 76c | 305$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463f…e458backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +146.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 19c | 284.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 110 | 20.9%23 W · 87 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 56c | 282.17$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 227$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.35 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…42cfbacked Yes | 21c | 210$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 193.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.45 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 15c | 175$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 173.83$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 73c | 157.91$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 150.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x757e…8128backed No | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 148$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6564…47cebacked Yes | 17c | 145.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 42c | 120$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 79c | 115.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 104.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Yes | 22c | 99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 77c | 96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.16 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 28c | 87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.64 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…8e57backed Yes | 27c | 73.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 23c | 69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 62.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed No | 77c | 59.01$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 78c | 51.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 51.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0085…b322backed No | 74c | 49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 73c | 47.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 45c | 44.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 73c | 33.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff1…1be9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 79cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…0aa7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f44…7470backed No | 77c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?this page
- Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.